NYMEX crude gains in Asia as OPEC deal surprises market - Sean Seshadri

Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Thursday as OPEC agreed to curbs on production with details apparently still under discussion and investors noted U.S. inventory data from the Department of Energy.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.13% to $47.11 a barrel.

OPEC surprised markets Wednesday and agreed to production curbs under a formula to cut output to a range of 32.5 million to 33 million barrels of oil per day from 33.4 million.

Under the terms, Saudi Arabia, the world's top producer, is expected to cut output by 350,000 barrels a day, according to reports.

Overnight, oil prices dipped on Wednesday as data showing a large build in U.S. gasoline inventories prompted a selloff that killed an early rally on a surprise drop in U.S. crudestockpiles for a fourth straight week.

Brent crude for December delivery on the Intercontinental Exchange was last quoted at $49.47 a barrel.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels in the week to Sept. 23, compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 3.0 million barrels, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.0 million barrels, far more than the gain of 178,000 barrels forecast in a Reuters poll.

Brent, NYMEX mixed in Asia as API data factored in, OPEC moves awaited - Sean Seshadri

Crude oil prices swayed in Asia on Wednesday as industry data showed a continued demand trend for crude and refined product stockpiles and an OPEC meeting later in the day looms with chances for a freeze on production seen slim.

Crude oil for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up 0.04% to $44.69 a barrel. On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for December delivery eased 0.30% to $46.68 a barrel.

The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventory estimates showed a drop of 750,000 barrels last week, coming on th heels of a substantial 7.5 million barrel draw previously. Gasoline stocks dropped 3.7 million barrels, the fourth successive week of draws above 2.0 million, while distillates fell by 300,000 barrels. Inventories at Cushing eased by 800,000 barrels.

The figures come ahead of more closely-watched data from the U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday.

Overnight, oil prices plunged nearly 3% during North American hours on Tuesday, extending overnight losses, after both Saudi Arabia and Iran played down expectations for a deal to freeze or cut oil production at the closely watched informal OPEC meeting on Wednesday.

Oil ministers from both countries said on Tuesday that talks among OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers in Algiers are "consultative," casting doubt on the chances of any policy decision during the meeting.

On Monday, London-traded Brent futures surged $1.45, or 3.12%, amid hopes global oil producers will make progress on a deal to limit production at an informal meeting tentatively scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

OPEC members, led by Saudi Arabia and other big Middle East crude exporters, such as Iran and Iraq, will meet non-OPEC producer Russia at the International Energy Forum in Algeria on Wednesday at 14:00GMT (10:00AM ET).

According to market experts, chances that the meeting would yield any action to reduce the global glut appeared minimal. Instead, most believe that oil producers will continue to monitor the market and possibly postpone freeze talks to the official OPEC meeting in Vienna on November 30.

An attempt to jointly freeze production levels earlier this year failed after Saudi Arabia backed out over Iran's refusal to take part of the initiative, underscoring the difficulty for political rivals to forge consensus.

Sean Seshadri Trading - Florida Oil up 4 percent as OPEC meets, volatility hits post-Doha high

Oil jumped as much as 4 percent on Monday as the world's largest producers gathered in Algeria to discuss ways to support prices, with nervous trade driving volatility to its highest since a similar meeting to freeze output in April in Doha which failed.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other exporters led by No. 1 producer Russia are meeting informally on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria from Sept. 26-28 to discuss steps to tackle a price-eroding glut of crude.

Key OPEC member Iran, the fourth largest crude exporter which is still trying to recapture output before Western sanctions in 2012, downplayed the chances of a deal while some OPEC members remained hopeful.

Brent crude futures (LCOc1) were up $1.54, or 3.4 percent, at $47.43 a barrel by 1:56 p.m. EDT (1756 GMT), after trading as high as $47.66.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) rose $1.58, or 3.6 percent, to $46.06, with its session high at $46.20.

Implied volatility, a gauge of how much oil prices move, was at its highest since April 18, when the meeting in Doha among OPEC members to discuss an output freeze ended in an impasse, leaving crude at just above $40.

Scepticism about any deal being reached prompted money managers to cut their bullish bets on U.S. crude futures to a one-month low last week, when prices fell by nearly 5 percent. [CFTC/]

Some analysts believe implementation of a freeze will only be after OPEC's all-important policy meeting in Vienna in November. Until then, the group and non-members, including Russia and No. 1 oil consumer the United States, are likely to ramp up output.

"While we look for both Russia and the OPEC membership to continue to talk up the market via bullish hype whenever crude prices decline by a few dollars a barrel, we are maintaining a view that this type of artificial price support is simply delaying the inevitable by allowing non-OPEC production, especially from U.S. shale producers, to recover further," said Jim Ritterbusch of Chicago-based oil markets consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates.

OPEC pumped near a multi-year high of 33.24 million barrels per day in August, data showed. Russian production hit record highs of 11.75 million bpd last week. U.S. output has fallen this year but its oil rig count, which signals future production, has risen for 12 of the past 13 weeks. [RIG/U]

"The Saudis, in particular, and OPEC, in general, must decide whether they wish to maximize revenue or output," said a broker.

Unplanned outages across OPEC amounting to around 2 million bpd also make it hard for members to agree to a freeze, SEB commodities strategist Bjarne Schieldrop said.

"They will come away with nothing, because it is too difficult. How can they decide a freeze when Libya is on the doorstep of returning production, or Nigeria for that matter?" Schieldrop said.

Sean Seshadri - Gold prices fall in Asia as investors look ahead to busy policy week

Gold fell in Asia on Monday, giving up early gains, with a busy week of central bank remarks ahead and what is expected to be a record audience for the first debate between the top two contenders for the U.S. presidency.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange eased 0.32% to $1,337.35 a troy ounce.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for December delivery dropped 1.01% to $19.610 a troy ounce, while copepr futures for December delivery declined 0.27% to $2.194 a pound.

In the coming week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak amid ongoing uncertainty over the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. As well, a pair of speeches from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will be in focus for fresh hints on whether the ECB will step up monetary stimulus in the coming months to boost inflation and prop up the economy.

In addition, remarks by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will be eyed in wake of last week's decision by the central bank to modify its policy framework.

The Japanese central bank refrained from cutting interest rates further into negative territory or expanding its asset purchase program at its monetary policy meeting, instead switching to targeting interest rates as a way to reach its inflation target.

Another big event for markets could be the first U.S. presidential debate on Monday between Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican hopeful Donald Trump.

Last week, gold prices edged lower on Friday, but notched the strongest weekly advance in almost two months after the Federal Reserve held off on raising interest rates and scaled back the number of rate hikes it expects next year.

The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday, but hinted that a hike could come in December if the job market continued to improve.

At the same time, the U.S. central bank also cut the number of rate hikes it expects next year and in 2018, according to the median projection of forecasts released with its post-meeting statement.

The Fed has policy meetings scheduled in early November and mid-December.

Economists believe policymakers would avoid a rate hike in November in part because the meeting falls just days before the U.S. presidential election.

Markets are currently pricing in a 12.4% chance of a rate hike at November's meeting, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

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