Gold heads into Asian day quoted weaker with OPEC curb effort in focus - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices were quoted lower ahead of early Asian trade on Wednesday with investors on the watch for news on prospects for an OPEC effort to curb output in a move that has implications for global growth and inflation outcomes.

Gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange were last quoted at $1,186.50 a troy ounce, down 0.36%.

Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures were last quoted at $16.672 a troy ounce, down 0.02%, while copper futures last traded at $2.604 a pound, down 2.49%. Copper prices had climbed around 18% this month on hopes that infrastructure plans in top consumers China and the U.S. will bolster demand for the industrial metal.

Overnight, gold prices were lower Tuesday as upbeat U.S. economic reports underlined the view that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in December, underpinning dollar demand.

Data on Tuesday showed that the U.S. economy grew at a quicker than expected rate in the third quarter, expanding at the fastest pace in two years.

The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product grew by 3.2% on a year-over-year basis, up from the previously reported estimate of 2.9%.

Another report showed that U.S. consumer confidence rebounded strongly in November, after a moderate decline in October.

Gold is priced in dollars and becomes less attractive to holders of other currencies when the dollar rises and is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced.

Prices of the yellow metal have fallen more than 6% so far this month on expectations that increased U.S. fiscal spending under a Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation, which would ultimately lead to an era of higher interest rates.

Traders were also keeping an eye on oil prices as they assessed the likelihood that OPEC members would reach a deal on output cuts ahead of Wednesday’s key meeting.

A production cut would prop up oil prices and bolster the currencies of oil exporting countries such as Canada and Russia.

Oil prices jump on fresh hopes for OPEC deal - Sean Seshadri

Oil prices jumped in choppy trade on Monday after Iraq’s oil minister said he was “optimistic” that Wednesday’s crunch OPEC meeting will yield an agreement on output cuts.

U.S. crude oil was up 78 cents or 1.78% at $46.88 a barrel at 0931ET, after falling as low as $45.16 earlier.

Global benchmark Brent futures were at $49.08 a barrel, up 81 cents or 1.68%.

Prices jumped after Iraqi oil minister Jabar Ali al-Luaibi said Monday he is “optimistic” that OPEC will reach an agreement that is acceptable to all this week.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is attempting to get its 14 member states, along with non-OPEC member Russia, to implement coordinated production cuts aimed at reducing a global supply glut that has seen oil prices halve in two years.

In September the producer cartel reached an agreement that would reduce production to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day.

OPEC is to hold a meeting in Vienna on Wednesday, where the deal was expected to be finalized.

But reaching an agreement on a deal to cut output has proved problematic, with some producers reluctant to curb production.

Over the weekend Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Khalid al-Falih said oil prices will stabilize in 2017 without an intervention from OPEC.

The remarks raised fresh doubts over whether an agreement on OPEC’s first production cut in eight years would be reached.

Meanwhile, oil ministers from Algeria and Venezuela were to travel to Moscow on Monday and Tuesday, ahead of Wednesday’s key meeting, in a bid to persuade Russia to take part in cuts rather than merely freezing output.

Most analysts believe that some form of consensus will be reached, but doubts remain over whether it will be enough to support the market.

"An agreement to a large production cut could send oil prices closer to $60 per barrel before year's end, while failure to reach an agreement could cause oil prices to fall back to the low $40 per barrel," analysts at Nordea said.

NYMEX crude drops smartly in Asia as OPEC output curb efforts eyed - Sean Seshadri

Crude oil prices dropped smartly in Asia on Monday as investors braced for a down-to-the-wire decision by OPEC to curb output as proposed.

U.S. crude oil prices slumped 1.44% to $45.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Last week, oil prices fell sharply on Friday amid uncertainty over whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries can reach an agreement to cut production and prop up markets.

Global benchmark Brent futures were last quoted at $47.43 a barrel.

Doubts over whether major global exporters will be able to reach an agreement on November 30 to rein in output also kept investors on the sidelines. OPEC is to hold a meeting in Vienna on Wednesday aimed at finalizing the details of a proposed output cut, which it is hoped will reduce a global supply glut that has pressured oil prices lower for more than two years.

The producer cartel is attempting to get its 14 member states, along with non-OPEC member Russia, to implement coordinated production cuts.

Reaching an agreement on a deal to cut output has proved problematic, with some producers, most notably Iran, reluctant to curb production.

Most analysts believe that some form of consensus will be reached, but doubts remain over whether it will be enough to support the market.

"An agreement to a large production cut could send oil prices closer to $60 per barrel before year's end, while failure to reach an agreement could cause oil prices to fall back to the low $40 per barrel," analysts at Nordea said.

Gold eases off 9-1/2 month lows as dollar rally pauses - Sean Seshadi

Gold prices eased on Thursday after falling to their lowest levels since February as the dollar paused after surging to fresh 14-year peaks.

Gold for December delivery was trading at $1,187.55 a troy ounce by 0946 GMT, after earlier falling as low as $1,179.75, a level not seen since February 8.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last at 101.67, not far from highs of 102.11, the strongest level since early April 2003.

The dollar rallied after upbeat U.S. data and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes cemented expectations for a rate hike next month.

The minutes from the Fed’s November meeting said an interest-rate increase was possible “relatively soon” if data indicated that the economy is improving.

Some Fed officials explicitly called for a rate hike in December, the minutes showed.

Separately, data showed that U.S. durable goods orders rose at the fastest rate in a year in October and another report showed that a gauge of U.S. consumer confidence rose strongly in November.

According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, odds for a rate hike at the Fed's December 13-14 meeting are now at 100%.

Gold is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive to holders of other currencies when the dollar strengthens.

Prices of the yellow metal had already come under pressure this month amid the view that increased U.S. fiscal spending under a Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation, which would ultimately lead to an era of higher interest rates.

Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced.

Trade was expected remain quiet on Thursday; with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for December delivery were at $16.34 a troy ounce, while copper futures traded at $2.65 a pound.

Copper prices have risen around 20% so far this month on expectations of rising demand from China and an increase in infrastructure spending in the U.S. when Donald Trump becomes president.

China and the U.S. are the top two consumers of the industrial metal.

Oil prices fall on strong dollar, trading thin ahead of OPEC meeting - Sean Seshadri

Oil prices fell on Friday, under pressure from a strong dollar, but activity was low after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and with many traders reluctant to take big new positions ahead of a planned OPEC-led crude output cut to be decided next week.

International Brent crude oil futures were trading at $48.57 at 0435 GMT, down 43 cents, or 0.9 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $47.59 per barrel, down 37 cents, or 0.8 percent, from their last settlement.

Traders said the main drag on prices on Friday was the strong dollar, which this month hit levels last seen in 2003 against a basket of other leading currencies.

A strong dollar, in which oil is traded, makes fuel purchases more expensive for countries using other currencies at home, potentially crimping demand.

Traders said market activity was low due to the U.S. holiday, while there was a reluctance to take on big price directional bets because of uncertainty about the planned oil output cut, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

OPEC is due to meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially with non-OPEC member Russia, but there is disagreement within the producer cartel as to which member states should cut and by how much.

"Crude oil prices treaded water as OPEC and non-OPEC members spent more time in preliminary meetings ahead of the Vienna gathering ... Investors look like they are sitting on the sidelines as they await the OPEC meeting in Vienna next week," ANZ bank said on Friday.

Most analysts believe that some form of a production cut will be agreed, though it is uncertain whether this will be enough to prop up a market that has been dogged by a fuel supply overhang for over two years.

U.S. crude stockpiles fall as imports drop, refinery rates rise: EIA - Sean Seshadri

U.S. crude oil stocks fell last week after three straight weeks of builds as imports dropped and refineries hiked output, while gasoline inventories rose sharply amid weak demand, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday.

Crude inventories fell 1.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 18, compared with expectations for an increase of 671,000 barrels. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for crude futures fell 87,000 barrels, the EIA said.

Crude oil prices were relatively steady after the data, as the market continues to ready for next week's meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

U.S. crude futures (CLc1) oil rose 19 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $48.22 a barrel, while Brent crude (LCOc1) gained 15 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $49.27 a barrel.

U.S. crude imports fell last week by 833,000 barrels per day.

Refinery crude runs rose 271,000 bpd and utilization rates gained 1.6 percentage points to 90.8 percent of total capacity, EIA data showed.

Gasoline stocks rose 2.3 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 643,000-barrel gain.

Gasoline demand over the past four weeks was 9.2 mln bpd, only 0.6 percent higher from a year ago.

"A solid build to gasoline inventories comes amid higher gasoline production and lower implied demand on the week," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData.

"On the whole, the report is a welcome distraction from OPEC talk, but fairly neutral on the whole."

Distillate stockpiles , which include diesel and heating oil, rose 327,000 barrels, versus expectations for a 357,000-barrel drop, the data showed.

IEA expects oil investment to fall for third year in 2017 - Sean Seshadri

Investment in new oil production is likely to fall for a third year in 2017 as a global supply glut persists, stoking volatility in crude markets, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

"Our analysis shows we are entering a period of greater oil price volatility (partly) as a result of three years in a row of global oil investments in decline: in 2015, 2016 and most likely 2017," IEA director general Fatih Birol said, speaking at an energy conference in Tokyo.

"This is the first time in the history of oil that investments are declining three years in a row," he said, adding that this would cause "difficulties" in global oil markets in a few years.

Oil prices have risen to their highest in nearly a month, as expectations grow among traders and investors that OPEC will agree to cut production, but market watchers reckon a deal may pack less punch than Saudi Arabia and its partners want.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets next week to try to finalize to output curbs.

"Our analysis shows that when prices go to $60, we'll make a big chunk of U.S. shale oil economical and within the nine months to 12 months of time, we may see a response coming from the shale oil and other high-cost areas," Birol told Reuters, speaking in an interview on the sidelines of the conference.

"And this may again put downward pressure on the prices."

Brent crude stood around (LCOc1) $49 a barrel on Thursday.

Birol said that level would be enough for many U.S. shalecompanies to restart stalled production, although it would takearound nine months for the new supply to reach the market.

The IEA director general said it is still early to speculate what Donald Trump's presidency in the United States will have on energy policies.

"Having said that, both U.S. shale oil and U.S. shale gas have a very strong economic momentum behind them," Birol said.

"Shale gas has significant economic competitiveness today, and we think it will be so in the next years to come."

Oil rallies to 3-week high on Putin freeze comments - Sean Seshadri

Oil prices rose to a three-week high during European hours on Monday, adding to last week's strong gains on growing expectations that global oil producers will find a way to cap output at a meeting scheduled for the end of this month.

Brent oil for January delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London rallied to an intraday peak of $47.72 a barrel, the most since November 2. It was last at $47.60 by 4:00AM ET (09:00GMT), up 69 cents, or 1.47%.

London-traded Brent futures logged a gain of $2.11, or 4.5%, last week, after posting losses in each of the past four weeks.

Elsewhere, crude oil for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange inched up 69 cents, or 1.49%, to $47.05 a barrel, after touching $47.20 earlier, a level not seen since November 1.

Last week, New York-traded oil futures rose $2.28, or 5%, after three straight weekly declines.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sees a “high probability” that an agreement to curb oil production will be reached at a meeting later this month.

Speaking at a news conference in Lima after an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit on Sunday, Putin said Russia is willing to freeze its crude oil output at current levels.

Meanwhile, Iraq’s oil minister Jabbar al-Luaibi said late Sunday the country plans to offer three new proposals this week aimed at bolstering the unity of the group.

Additionally, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said it’s “highly probable” members will reach a consensus, according to comments published by the country’s Shana news service.

Speculation that OPEC is moving closer toward finalizing its first deal since 2008 to limit oil output mounted amid reports that member countries proposed Iran cap its oil output at 3.92 million barrels per day (bpd) in a meeting on Friday. Tehran has previously said it would accept a freeze at between 4.0 and 4.2 million bpd.

The oil group reached an agreement to cap output to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day in talks held in Algeria in late September. However, OPEC said it won’t finalize details on individual output quotas until its next official meeting in Vienna on November 30.

Crude Oil Futures - Weekly Outlook: November 21 - 25 - Sean Seshadi Trading Florida

Oil futures finished higher on Friday, logging their first weekly gain in more than a month amid optimism that OPEC will agree to production cuts at a meeting scheduled for the end of the month.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for January delivery tacked on 37 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $46.86 a barrel by close of trade Friday. It rallied to $47.62 the day before, the highest since November 2.

For the week, London-traded Brent futures logged a gain of $2.11, or 4.5%, after posting losses in each of the past four weeks.

Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in December inched up 27 cents, or 0.59%, to end the week at $45.69 a barrel. The contract touched $46.58 on Thursday, a level not seen since November 1.

New York-traded oil futures rose $2.28, or 5%, on the week, after three straight weekly declines. The December contract expires at the end of Monday’s session.

OPEC is moving closer toward finalizing its first deal since 2008 to limit oil output, with most members prepared to offer Iran significant flexibility on production volumes, ministers and sources said on Friday.

Several OPEC oil ministers including Saudi Arabia's Khalid al-Falih met in Doha on the sidelines of a gas forum Friday. Iranian officials attended the gathering although minister Bijan Zanganeh did not come.

At the meeting, OPEC member countries proposed Iran cap its oil output at 3.92 million barrels per day (bpd), according to a source familiar with the proposal.

Iran has previously said it would accept a freeze at between 4.0 and 4.2 million bpd.

The oil group reached an agreement to cap output to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day in talks held in Algeria in late September. However, OPEC said it won’t finalize details on individual output quotas until its next official meeting in Vienna on November 30.

If OPEC reaches a deal at the end of the month, it may also draw support from non-OPEC members including Russia, which promised to cooperate but so far has refrained from any firm commitment.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak participated in Friday's meeting and said he thought OPEC was moving closer to a deal. If an agreement were reached, Russia was prepared to join and cap output for six months or longer, Novak said.

Oil's gains were capped after oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. last week rose by 19 to 471, marking the 11th increase in the last 12 weeks.

Prices were also weighed by a broadly stronger U.S. dollar, which climbed to a 14-year high against a basket of other major currencies, amid a rally driven by the U.S. presidential election and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month.

Dollar-denominated oil futures contracts tend to fall when the dollar rises, as this makes oil more expensive for buyers in other currencies.

In the week ahead, trade volumes are expected to remain light around Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday and Friday's shortened trading session.

Market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Oil traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers to gauge their readiness on freezing or cutting output.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, November 22

The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, November 23

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count, which is being released two days earlier than usual, because of the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

In addition, the U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, new home sales and a revised report on consumer sentiment, while the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its November meeting.

Thursday, November 24

Financial markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

S.Korea should invest in U.S. oil, gas to counter Trump policy changes: official - Sean Seshadri

South Korean oil and gas companies should invest more in U.S. exploration projects to limit the impact of possible energy policy changes planned by U.S President-elect Donald Trump, the country's vice energy minister said on Thursday.

Trump has called global climate change a hoax and has pledged to walk away from the 2015 Paris Agreement, which was strongly supported by outgoing Democratic U.S. President Barack Obama. Trump has also promised to roll back some of America's environmental policies, which he said would revive the ailing U.S. oil and coal industries.

"Trump administration's energy policy direction contrasts with that of the Obama administration, therefore, substantial changes in domestic and global energy markets are inevitable," Vice Energy Minister Woo Tae-hee said, according to a copy of a speech he was to deliver at an industry forum in Seoul.

"As a result, uncertainty of energy policy is increasing greatly," Woo said.

To minimize the impact of U.S. energy policy changes, Woo urged Korean private companies to look for more opportunities to participate in U.S. exploration projects as U.S. shale gas production is expected to rise.

Woo also suggested that South Korea should expand other cooperation in the oil and gas sector, citing as an example Korea Gas Corp's (KS:036460) long-term shale gas supply deal with U.S. Cheniere Energy (A:LNG).

The two companies signed a 20-year deal in 2012, and KOGAS is set to start next year to bring 2.8 million tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas processed by Cheniere to South Korea.

In the renewable energy sector, which is likely to be hit hard by U.S. policy changes, the vice minister said South Korea should bolster cooperation with the U.S. in clean energy fields, including solar power, despite worries over slow market growth.

South Korea unveiled an investment plan worth about $37 billion in early July this year to grow renewable energy and related businesses by 2020 with an aim to cut greenhouse emissions and improve the economy.

API says crude stocks up 3.65 million barrels last week - Sean Seshadri

The American Petroleum Institute (API) said Tuesday crude oil inventories rose 3.65 million barrels last week, building on an increase of 4.4 million barrels the previous week and rose more than expected.

Gasoline inventories recorded a slight draw of 160,000 barrels in the week while there was an increase in distillate inventories of 3.0 million barrels, the first gain in six weeks.

Cushing recorded a build of 1.13 million barrels after a slight increase the previous week.

Gold prices gain in early Asia as regional data, Trump policies in focus - Sean Seshadri

Gold prices gained in Asia on Monday ahead of key regional data sets and as investors continued to see demand potential spurred by expected infrastructure spending plans by president-elect Donald Trump with the Republican part in control of both house of the U.S. Congress.

Later on Monday out of China comes fixed asset investment for October with an 8.2% rise seen year-on-year and industrial production expected up 6.2% and retail sales seen rising 10.7%. China is the world's second largest crude importer with demand closely tied to economic growth rates. Japan also reports provisional third quarter GDP figures.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.13% to $1,228.75 a troy ounce. Also on the Comex, silver futures for December delivery gained 0.75% to $17.462 a troy ounce, while copper futures showed a 0.52% increase to $2.520 a pound.

Copper was boosted after Trump raised the prospect of increased infrastructure spending, while recent signs of strengthening demand in China have also underpinned prices.

Later this week, investors will be looking to congressional testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday for fresh indications on whether interest rates will rise next month.

Last week, gold prices fell to five month lows on Friday as risk appetite recovered following Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, sapping investor demand for safe haven assets.

Market sentiment was boosted by optimism that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under a Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation.

Gold prices were also pressured lower by the stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December.

Expectations for higher U.S. interest rates remained intact amid optimism that a pick-up in growth will allow the Fed to tighten borrowing costs.

Investors currently price an 81.1% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting; according to federal funds futures tracked Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced.

U.S. natural gas rebounds after sharp falls last week - Sean Seshadri

 U.S. natural gas futures pushed higher on Monday, bouncing back from sharp falls last week as market players looked ahead to cold weather forecast in key gas-consuming regions in the U.S. which should boost demand for the heating fuel.

Natural gas for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.9 cents, or 1.77%, to $2.816 per million British thermal units by 10:20AM ET (15:20GMT), after jumping to $2.876 in early trade.

Updated weather forecasting models revealed that a strong cold blast with rain and snow will arrive into the eastern U.S. by next week for the first relatively cold Fall-like weather system this year.

Natural gas futures lost nearly 11% last week as warmer-than-average weather in key gas-consuming regions in the U.S. ignited speculation that a mild winter will curtail demand for the heating fuel and leave a glut of it in storage, weighing on prices next year.

Gas futures often reach a seasonal low in October, when mild weather reduces demand, before recovering in the winter, when heating-fuel use peaks.

Meanwhile, market participants awaited weekly supply data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a build in a range between 51 and 61 billion cubic feet in the week ended November 4.

That compares with a gain of 54 billion cubic feet in the preceding week, 54 billion a year earlier and a five-year average build of 38 billion cubic feet.

Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 3.963 trillion cubic feet, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 1.2% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 4.4% above the five-year average for this time of year.